Dating 101.
I have recently met a guy, the rare kind that will make your heart skip a beat whilst you dance to the rhythm of his. Instead of seeing love hearts, I was seeing fractions, percentages and a hell of a lot of question marks. I had to decide whether or not to believe his word and having just met him, I failed to reach a conclusion without reasonable doubt. With the current data I hold, whilst also including my own dating history, proved insufficient to confidently believe what he was telling me, excuse this, excuse that.
Would it be easier if we just resorted to statistics and the probability formula to determine how truthful someone is being? Is it more logical to calculate whether the truth is more probable that the lie opposed to basing our decision solely on the delivery or circumstance? I can’t help but think the people who lie about their feelings just ruin it for all the honest people out there making it necessary to resort to mathematics.
“Do you trust me?”
“Let me just check my book of statistics and come back to you?”
After a great first date, follow-up texts and confirmation there would be a second, why was it taking so long for him to put a date on our next meeting? Was I the back-up plan he was stringing along whilst he checked to see if he could do better? The ego boost, the cheerleader in his “man’s world”?
With that in mind, I felt the only method in moving the situation forward was to work out how likely it was that his excuse was the truth compared to the alternative of him being a pathological liar?
The Math (I will simplify, don’t lose interest!)
Probability formula is the ratio of the number of possible outcome measures in the following way.
P(lie) = P(truth) which means both outcomes are equally likely to occur but I needed to find out if the lie was more or less favourable than the truth.
The lie:
- 5 % of people are capable of being a pathological liar so if we say the ratio of men to woman in Australia is 4/5, we know that 2 % of males are capable.
- 33 % of men lie to woman after the first date for their own personal gain, for example, an ego boost by stringing them along.
2 + 33 = 35 / 200 (as there are two percentages) = 0.175 x 100 (to make it into a percentage) = 17.5 %
P(lie)= A+B = 17.5 %
The total of the probability of the lie: 17.5 %
The Truth:
- 16 % of males ***
- 15 % of males ***
Unfortunately for you, in this moment in time, I still have a glimmer of respect left so I won’t disclose the personal excuses he used, lets just say there are two and the chances of them being real are:
16 + 15 = 31/ 200 x 100 = 15.5 %
P(truth)= A+B = 15.5 %
Now to make these the only two possible outcomes out of 100:
Chances of the lie = 17/32.5 x 100 = 52 %
Chances of the truth = 15.5/32.5 x 100 = 48%
The conclusion, the lie is greater than the truth but it still feels inconclusive!(Or with the facts, am I still in denial!??)
It makes sense that the factors I’m considering into the decision making process produce a seriously close percentage as I was unable to determine what to believe in the first place.
It seems I am no closer to determining what to believe and the fact I am strategically calculating whats more likely to be true, probably suggests that the only crazy one here is me! Are we a product of past relationship errors enabling us to lack trust in men and what they tell us? I probably shouldn’t tar them all with the same brush but it’s impossible to reprogram the brain without hypnotherapy, surely? Or do I have it right, is this the new future of dating?
Maybe you can’t base your decision making on formulas and statistics but more on how much you have to lose or gain from the situation. I have nothing to lose and if I don’t trust his word, I will never find out if this calculation works hence not finishing the experiment.
One month deep and no second meeting, perhaps you don’t have to be a genius to work out the math!
Woman, I hope you can relate! We are the masters of our own destruction! Future Katie says run for the hills, she knows best but it’s a shame I am merely just the present Katie, tripping over hurdles I should jump.
Watch this space for updates!
Katie Babb 